Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach.

Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmental factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addition, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm2 of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explanatory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empirical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process-based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a substantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.

Trajectories of wildfire behavior under climate change. Can forest management mitigate the increasing hazard?

Mediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020-2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5.

Adipocyte-specific CDK7 ablation leads to progressive loss of adipose tissue and metabolic dysfunction.

Adipose tissue regulates whole-body energy homeostasis. Both lipodystrophy and obesity, the extreme and opposite aspects of adipose tissue dysfunction, result in metabolic disorders: insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis. Cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) have been reported to be involved in adipose tissue development and functions. Using adipose tissue-specific knockout mice, here we demonstrate that the deletion of CDK7 in adipose tissue results in progressive lipodystrophy, insulin resistance, impaired adipokine secretion and downregulation of fat-specific genes, which are aggravated on high-fat diet and during ageing. Our studies suggest that CDK7 is a key regulatory component of adipose tissue maintenance and systemic energy homeostasis.

Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming.

Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of great value to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the scientific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changes in ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃ set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). The review of 78 studies shows that climate change will lead to a general reduction in the provision of regulating services (e.g. carbon storage, regulation of freshwater quantity and quality) and a general increase in the number of fires, burnt areas and generally, an increase in climate-related forest hazards (median + 62% by 2100). Studies using scenarios above the 2℃ threshold projected significantly more negative changes in regulating services than studies using scenarios below this threshold. Main projected trend changes on material services (e.g. wood products), were less clear and depended on (i) whether or not the studies considered the interaction between the rise in temperatures and other drivers (e.g. forest management, CO2 fertilization) and (ii) differences in productivity responses across the tree species evaluated. Overall, the reviewed studies projected significant reductions in range extent and habitat suitability for the most drought-sensitive forest species (e.g. -88% Fagus sylvatica), while the amount of habitat available for more drought-tolerant species will remain stable or increase; however, the magnitude of projected change for these more xeric species was limited when high-end extreme climatic scenarios were considered (above Paris Agreement). Our review highlights the benefits that climate change mitigation (to keep global mean temperature increase <2℃) can bring in terms of service provision and conservation of Mediterranean forests.

Has COVID-19 halted winter-spring wildfires in the Mediterranean? Insights for wildfire science under a pandemic context.

Wildfires in the Mediterranean are strongly tied to human activities. Given their particular link with humans, which act as both initiators and suppressors, wildfire hazard is highly sensitive to socioeconomic changes and patterns. Many researchers have prompted the perils of sustaining the current management policy, the so-called 'total fire exclusion'. This policy, coupled to increasingly fire-prone weather conditions, may lead to more hazardous fires in the mid-long run. Under this framework, the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic adds to the ongoing situation. Facing the lack of an effective treatment, the only alternative was the implementation of strict lockdown strategies. The virtual halt of the system undoubtedly affected economic and social behavior, triggering cascading effects such as the drop in winter-spring wildfire activity. In this work, we discuss the main impacts, challenges and consequences that wildfire science may experience due to the pandemic situation, and identify potential opportunities for wildfire management. We investigate the recent evolution of burned area (retrieved from the MCD64A1 v006 MODIS product) in the EU Mediterranean region (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) to ascertain to what extent the 2020 winter-spring season was impacted by the public health response to COVID-19 (curfews and lockdowns). We accounted for weather conditions (characterized using the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI6) to disregard possible weather effects mediating fire activity. Our results suggest that, under similar drought-related circumstances (SPEI6 ≈ -0.7), the expected burned area in 2020 during the lockdown period in the EU (March-May) would lay somewhere within the range of 38,800 ha ± 18,379 ha. Instead, the affected area stands one order of magnitude below average (3325 ha). This stresses the need of considering the social dimension in the analysis of current and future wildfire impacts in the Mediterranean region.

Temporal dimension of forest vulnerability to fire along successional trajectories.

Understanding ecosystem vulnerability is essential in risk management to anticipate disasters. While valuable efforts have been made to characterize vulnerability components (exposure, sensitivity, and response capacity) at particular ecosystem stages, there is still a lack of context-specific studies accounting for the temporal dimension of vulnerability. In this study, we developed a procedure to identify the main natural dynamics of monospecific and mixed forests and to assess the variations of sensitivity and response capacity to fire along successional dynamics. In the procedure, we generated forest chronosequences by summarizing the dynamics between consecutive surveys of permanent plots into a set of longer successional trajectories represented in a multidimensional space. Then, we calculated several variables of sensitivity and response capacity to fire of forest stages associated with each trajectory and we assessed their variation along succession. The procedure was applied to Mediterranean forests in Spain dominated by a pine species poorly adapted to severe crown fires. We found that forest vulnerability components varied differently among successional trajectories, which depended on the composition and structure of their initial stages and the environmental context in which they occurred. Autosuccessional dynamics of pine forests showed relatively low sensitivity to fire along trajectories. However, their response capacity was related to the changes in shrub cover. In contrast, diversifying dynamics showed an increasing sensitivity to fire, but also a higher response capacity the greater the functional diversity along succession. These results highlight the need for considering the temporal dimension of vulnerability in risk management and the importance of assessing sensitivity and response capacity as independent components of vulnerability that can be modified through management at critical forest stages.

Managing small, highly prolific invasive aquatic species: Exploring an ecosystem approach for the eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki).

Invasive exotic species threaten native biodiversity worldwide and their management is on the agenda of an increasing number of countries. We explored the potential of an ecosystem approach for the natural control of Gambusia holbrooki, which is among the most pernicious and widely distributed fish invaders. Individual-based linear mixed models were used to identify the ecosystem factors (conspecific density, environment and piscivorous birds) that most influenced life-history variation in male and female G. holbrooki (N = 654). All traits (body condition, growth, length, gonad weight, offspring size and number, real and potential fertility) were associated with at least one ecosystem factor from the 18 water bodies surveyed in north-eastern Spain. Models for female reproductive traits had the highest fit (R2 = 0.89) and those for body condition in both sexes the lowest (0.12). The life history of G. holbrooki was mostly affected by its density; increasing offspring number at the expense of offspring size at the sites with the highest fish density. Weaker effects on G. holbrooki life history were observed for the abundance of piscivorous birds and water-quality conditions, including turbidity and nutrient concentrations. Although effects were not consistent between traits, outputs supported that G. holbrooki has a wide tolerance to changes in water quality. Therefore, actions based solely on environmental changes within the range tested probably will fail in reducing the proliferation of G. holbrooki, especially if its body condition improved at the most naturalised sites. Overall, this study suggests that the management of G. holbrooki using ecologically sound treatments is likely to be very difficult in stagnant waters. Preventing new introductions and direct removal once established are the most appropriate actions for the management of this small, highly prolific fish invader.

Different Factors for Different Causes: Analysis of the Spatial Aggregations of Fire Ignitions in Catalonia (Spain).

The present study analyzes the effects of different socioeconomic factors on the frequency of fire ignition occurrence, according to different original causes. The data include a set of documented ignition points in the region of Catalonia for the period 1995-2008. The analysis focused on the spatial aggregation patterns of the ignitions for each specific ignition cause. The point-based data on ignitions were interpolated into municipality-level information using kernel methods as the basis for defining five ignition density levels. Afterwards, the combination of socioeconomic factors influencing the ignition density levels of the municipalities was analyzed for each documented cause of ignition using a principal component analysis. The obtained results confirmed the idea that both the spatial aggregation patterns of fire ignitions and the factors defining their occurrence were specific for each of the causes of ignition. Intentional fires and those of unknown origin were found to have similar spatial aggregation patterns, and the presence of high ignition density areas was related to high population and high unemployment rates. Additionally, it was found that fires originated from forest work, agricultural activities, pasture burning, and lightning had a very specific behavior on their own, differing from the similarities found on the spatial aggregation of ignitions originated from smokers, electric lines, machinery, campfires, and those of intentional or unknown origin.

Quantifying the effect of nitrogen-induced physiological and structural changes on poplar growth using a carbon-balance model.

We evaluate the importance of changes in photosynthetic capacity, respiration rates, root shoot ratio, pipe model parameters and specific leaf area in the early-growth response of hybrid poplar to nitrogen availability. Juvenile growth simulations for trees with three different levels of leaf nitrogen concentration (N(leaf)) (low (1.2%), medium (2.4%) and high (3.6%)) were conducted with the carbon-balance model CROBAS. Five-year growth simulations showed the diameter and height of poplar trees to be, respectively, four and three times larger in plants with 2.4% N(leaf) compared with those with 1.2% N(leaf). Increasing N(leaf) from 2.4 to 3.6% resulted in 34 and 16% higher diameter and height growth of trees. According to the model, changes in the photosynthetic capacity accounted for most of the differences in growth between trees with different levels of N(leaf); the other parameters were much less influential. This suggests that in fast-growing early-successional broadleaved species such as poplars, physiological rather than allocational and morphological traits predominate in determining growth, at least under non-limiting light conditions.

Six-year time course of light-use efficiency, carbon gain and growth of beech saplings (Fagus sylvatica) planted under a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) shelterwood.

Two-year-old Fagus sylvatica L. saplings were planted under the cover of a Pinus sylvestris L. stand in the French Massif Central. The stand was differentially thinned to obtain a gradient of transmitted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR(t); 0-0.35). Eighteen Fagus saplings were sampled in this gradient, and their growth (basal stem diameter increment) was recorded over six years. Over the same period, morphological parameters (leaf area, number and arrangement in space) were monitored by 3D-digitization. Photosynthetic parameters were estimated with a portable gas-exchange analyzer. Photosynthesis was mainly related to light availability, whereas sapling morphology was mainly driven by sapling size. Annual stem diameter increment was related to the amount of light-intercepting foliage (silhouette to total leaf area ratio (STAR) x total sapling leaf area (LA)) and light availability above the saplings (PAR(t)). However, light-use efficiency, i.e., the slope of the relationship between STAR x LA x PAR(t) and stem diameter increment, decreased over time as a result of a relative decrease in the proportion of photosynthetic tissues to total sapling biomass.

The role of below-ground competition during early stages of secondary succession: the case of 3-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings in an abandoned grassland.

In abandoned or extensively managed grasslands, the mechanisms involved in pioneer tree species success are not fully explained. Resource competition among plants and microclimate modifications have been emphasised as possible mechanisms to explain variation of survivorship and growth. In this study, we evaluated a number of mechanisms that may lead to successful survival and growth of seedlings of a pioneer tree species (Pinus sylvestris) in a grass-dominated grassland. Three-year-old Scots pines were planted in an extensively managed grassland of the French Massif Central and for 2 years were either maintained in bare soil or subjected to aerial and below-ground interactions induced by grass vegetation. Soil temperatures were slightly higher in bare soil than under the grass vegetation, but not to an extent explaining pine growth differences. The tall grass canopy reduced light transmission by 77% at ground level and by 20% in the upper part of Scots pine seedlings. Grass vegetation presence also significantly decreased soil volumetric water content (Hv) and soil nitrate in spring and in summer. In these conditions, the average tree height was reduced by 5% compared to trees grown in bare soil, and plant biomass was reduced by 85%. Scots pine intrinsic water-use efficiency (A/g), measured by leaf gas-exchange, increased when Hv decreased owing to a rapid decline of stomatal conductance (g). This result was also confirmed by delta 13C analyses of needles. A summer 15N labelling of seedlings and grass vegetation confirmed the higher NO3 capture capacity of grass vegetation in comparison with Scots pine seedlings. Our results provide evidence that the seedlings' success was linked to tolerance of below-ground resource depletion (particularly water) induced by grass vegetation based on morphological and physiological plasticity as well as to resource conservation.

Morphological and physiological responses of beech (Fagus sylvatica) seedlings to grass-induced below ground competition.

We examined morphological and physiological responses of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) seedlings to grass-induced below ground competition in full-light conditions. Two-year-old beech seedlings were grown during two growing seasons in 160-l containers in bare soil or with a mixture of five grass species widely represented in semi-natural meadows of central France. At the end of the second growing season, beech seedlings in the presence of grass showed significant reductions in diameter and height growth, annual shoot elongation, and stem, root and leaf biomass, but an increase in root to shoot biomass ratio. Grasses greatly reduced soil water availability, which was positively correlated with daily seedling diameter increment. Beech seedlings seemed to respond to water deficit by anticipating stomatal closure. There was evidence of competition for nitrogen (N) by grasses, but its effect on seedling development could not be separated from that of competition for water. By labeling the plants with 15N, we showed that beech seedlings absorbed little N when grasses were present, whereas grasses took up more than 97% of the total N absorbed in the container. We conclude that, even if beech seedlings display morphological and physiological adaptation to below ground competition, their development in full-light conditions may be strongly restricted by competition from grass species.

Unraveling the effects of plant hydraulics on stomatal closure during water stress in walnut.

The objectives of the study were to identify the relevant hydraulic parameters associated with stomatal regulation during water stress and to test the hypothesis of a stomatal control of xylem embolism in walnut (Juglans regia x nigra) trees. The hydraulic characteristics of the sap pathway were experimentally altered with different methods to alter plant transpiration (Eplant) and stomatal conductance (gs). Potted trees were exposed to a soil water depletion to alter soil water potential (Psisoil), soil resistance (Rsoil), and root hydraulic resistances (Rroot). Soil temperature was changed to alter Rroot alone. Embolism was created in the trunk to increase shoot resistance (Rshoot). Stomata closed in response to these stresses with the effect of maintaining the water pressure in the leaf rachis xylem (P(rachis)) above -1.4 MPa and the leaf water potential (Psileaf) above -1.6 MPa. The same dependence of Eplant and gs on P(rachis) or Psileaf was always observed. This suggested that stomata were not responding to changes in Psisoil, Rsoil, Rroot, or Rshoot per se but rather to their impact on P(rachis) and/or Psileaf. Leaf rachis was the most vulnerable organ, with a threshold P(rachis) for embolism induction of -1.4 MPa. The minimum Psileaf values corresponded to leaf turgor loss point. This suggested that stomata are responding to leaf water status as determined by transpiration rate and plant hydraulics and that P(rachis) might be the physiological parameter regulated by stomatal closure during water stress, which would have the effect of preventing extensive developments of cavitation during water stress.